Goalysis
2026-04-21

Football Analysis – 2026-04-21

Daily football match analysis for 2026-04-21 with signal scores and risk flags.

Introduction

Football match analysis for 2026-04-21 using Goalysis signals. Signal fit scores (0–100) indicate alignment between form, H2H patterns, and the selected analysis type. Higher scores suggest more consistent signals.

Top Matches Today (4)

Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs Chelsea FC
Mixed Signal
PL·2026-04-21·Moderate Alignment: 64/100
Recent form
Brighton & Hove Albion FC form (last 5): 3W-1D-1L. Chelsea FC form (last 5): 0W-0D-5L.
Home goals (last 5): 2, 2, 2, 1, 0 · Away goals (last 5): 0, 0, 0, 0, 0
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between Brighton & Hove Albion FC and Chelsea FC, 4 of the last 4 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 3 of the last 4 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
Brighton & Hove Albion FC have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 2 of those games. Chelsea FC show 3/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 0/5.
Why
Brighton & Hove Albion FC show stronger recent form than Chelsea FC. Brighton & Hove Albion FC generate stronger attacking returns. Chelsea FC's defensive record is less reliable. Patterns align in some areas but remain uneven. This limits the reliability of any single interpretation.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → Brighton & Hove Albion FC stronger
H2H signal → aligned with high-scoring outcomes
Goal trends → are inconclusive
Form, head-to-head, and goal trends converge on a consistent reading.
Key insight
Form and head-to-head data both support Brighton & Hove Albion FC
Real Madrid CF vs Deportivo Alavés
Mixed Signal
PD·2026-04-21·Moderate Alignment: 63/100
Recent form
Real Madrid CF form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L. Deportivo Alavés form (last 5): 1W-3D-1L.
Home goals (last 5): 3, 1, 1, 1, 3 · Away goals (last 5): 3, 2, 4, 1, 2
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between Real Madrid CF and Deportivo Alavés, 3 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 2 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
Real Madrid CF have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 5 of those games. Deportivo Alavés show 4/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 5/5.
Why
Deportivo Alavés produce more attacking output per match. Goal-heavy fixtures are common for both teams. Signals show partial agreement with some inconsistencies. This creates only moderate alignment.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → Deportivo Alavés stronger
H2H signal → aligned with over-threshold outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Signals partially align, with some inconsistency.
Key insight
Deportivo Alavés's recent results and head-to-head history converge on the same reading
Athletic Club vs CA Osasuna
Mixed Signal
PD·2026-04-21·Moderate Alignment: 57/100
Recent form
Athletic Club form (last 5): 1W-0D-4L. CA Osasuna form (last 5): 1W-3D-1L.
Home goals (last 5): 1, 0, 2, 0, 0 · Away goals (last 5): 1, 2, 1, 1, 2
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between Athletic Club and CA Osasuna, 2 of the last 4 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 3 of the last 4 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
Athletic Club have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 2 of those games. CA Osasuna show 3/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 4/5.
Why
CA Osasuna show stronger recent form than Athletic Club. CA Osasuna generate stronger attacking returns. Signals partially align but with notable inconsistencies. This limits the reliability of any single interpretation.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → CA Osasuna stronger
H2H signal → aligned with both-teams-scoring outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Some indicators agree while others diverge.
Key insight
CA Osasuna's form advantage coincides with elevated goal rates
Coventry City FC vs Portsmouth FC
Weak Signal
ELC·2026-04-21·Low Alignment: 28/100
Recent form
Coventry City FC form (last 5): 2W-3D-0L. Portsmouth FC form (last 5): 3W-2D-0L.
Home goals (last 5): 1, 0, 0, 3, 3 · Away goals (last 5): 1, 2, 1, 2, 1
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between Coventry City FC and Portsmouth FC, 2 of the last 3 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 2 of the last 3 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
Coventry City FC have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 2 of those games. Portsmouth FC show 1/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 2/5.
Why
Indicators diverge, giving low overall alignment. This means the signal carries limited interpretive weight.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → Portsmouth FC weaker
H2H signal → mixed, no unclear pattern
Goal trends → are inconclusive
Signals do not align inconsistently, resulting in low alignment.
Key insight
Portsmouth FC's form advantage is the clearest signal but lacks corroboration from other sources
Low Signal Matches (3)Expand to view

These matches show low reliability signals. Treat with caution.

Oxford United FC vs Wrexham AFC
Weak Signal
ELC·2026-04-21·Low Alignment: 26/100
Form: Oxford United FC: 1W-2D-2L | Wrexham AFC: 2W-1D-2L
H2H: 0 of last 1 matches over 2.5 goals, 0 of 1 BTTS
Goals: Oxford United FC: 1/5 over 2.5 | Wrexham AFC: 3/5 over 2.5
Wrexham AFC's defensive record is less unreliable. Indicators diverge, giving low overall alignment. This means the signal carries limited interpretive weight.
Wrexham AFC's form advantage is the clearest signal but lacks corroboration from other sources
RCD Mallorca vs Valencia CF
Weak Signal
PD·2026-04-21·Low Alignment: 23/100
Form: RCD Mallorca: 3W-1D-1L | Valencia CF: 2W-0D-3L
H2H: 1 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 3 of 5 BTTS
Goals: RCD Mallorca: 5/5 over 2.5 | Valencia CF: 2/5 over 2.5
RCD Mallorca show weaker recent form than Valencia CF. RCD Mallorca generate weaker attacking returns. The low score reflects conflicting signals across data sources. This means the signal carries limited interpretive weight. Recent form favors RCD Mallorca while head-to-head history suggests btts outcomes; current goal rates are high but head-to-head meetings do not reflect this
RCD Mallorca's form advantage coincides with elevated goal rates
Norwich City FC vs Derby County FC
Weak Signal
ELC·2026-04-21·Low Alignment: 23/100
Form: Norwich City FC: 3W-1D-1L | Derby County FC: 3W-0D-2L
H2H: 1 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 2 of 5 BTTS
Goals: Norwich City FC: 2/5 over 2.5 | Derby County FC: 2/5 over 2.5
The available data does not produce a coherent pattern. This weakens confidence in the observed direction.
Only Norwich City FC's recent results provide a directional signal, with limited supporting evidence

How to interpret these signals

Signal fit scores (0–100) indicate alignment between form, H2H patterns, and the selected analysis type. Higher scores suggest more consistent signals.