Goalysis
2026-04-23

Football Analysis – 2026-04-23

Daily football match analysis for 2026-04-23 with signal scores and risk flags.

Introduction

Football match analysis for 2026-04-23 using Goalysis signals. Signal fit scores (0–100) indicate alignment between form, H2H patterns, and the selected analysis type. Higher scores suggest more consistent signals.

Top Matches Today (4)

Go Ahead Eagles vs AZ
Mixed Signal
DED·2026-04-23·Moderate Alignment: 69/100
Recent form
Go Ahead Eagles form (last 5): 2W-1D-2L. AZ form (last 5): 3W-0D-2L.
Home goals (last 5): 0, 5, 0, 6, 1 · Away goals (last 5): 3, 2, 0, 4, 1
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between Go Ahead Eagles and AZ, 4 of the last 4 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 2 of the last 4 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
Go Ahead Eagles have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 1 of those games. AZ show 4/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 1/5.
Why
Patterns align in some areas but remain uneven. This means the signal should be treated with moderate confidence.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → AZ stronger
H2H signal → aligned with over-threshold outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Signals align consistently, resulting in high alignment.
Key insight
AZ's form advantage is reinforced by historical matchup patterns
PSV vs PEC Zwolle
Mixed Signal
DED·2026-04-23·Moderate Alignment: 69/100
Recent form
PSV form (last 5): 3W-0D-2L. PEC Zwolle form (last 5): 1W-3D-1L.
Home goals (last 5): 2, 4, 1, 2, 2 · Away goals (last 5): 2, 0, 2, 1, 1
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between PSV and PEC Zwolle, 4 of the last 4 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 2 of the last 4 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
PSV have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 4 of those games. PEC Zwolle show 3/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 4/5.
Why
PSV hold a clear form advantage over PEC Zwolle. PSV's offensive output is more reliable. Signals show partial agreement with some inconsistencies. This means the signal should be treated with moderate confidence.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → PSV stronger
H2H signal → aligned with over-threshold outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Signals align consistently, resulting in high alignment.
Key insight
PSV's form advantage is reinforced by historical matchup patterns
Casa Pia AC vs Sporting Clube de Braga
Mixed Signal
PPL·2026-04-23·Moderate Alignment: 57/100
Recent form
Casa Pia AC form (last 5): 0W-3D-2L. Sporting Clube de Braga form (last 5): 2W-2D-1L.
Home goals (last 5): 0, 1, 1, 0, 0 · Away goals (last 5): 2, 1, 1, 1, 2
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between Casa Pia AC and Sporting Clube de Braga, 5 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 4 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
Casa Pia AC have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 2 of those games. Sporting Clube de Braga show 3/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 3/5.
Why
Sporting Clube de Braga hold a clear form advantage over Casa Pia AC. Sporting Clube de Braga's offensive output is more reliable. Data shows mixed alignment across indicators. This means the signal should be treated with moderate confidence.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → Sporting Clube de Braga stronger
H2H signal → aligned with high-scoring outcomes
Goal trends → are inconclusive
Signals align consistently, resulting in high alignment.
Key insight
Sporting Clube de Braga's form advantage is reinforced by historical matchup patterns
Stade Brestois 29 vs Racing Club de Lens
Mixed Signal
FL1·2026-04-24·Moderate Alignment: 57/100Tomorrow
Recent form
Stade Brestois 29 form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L. Racing Club de Lens form (last 5): 3W-0D-2L.
Home goals (last 5): 1, 3, 0, 0, 2 · Away goals (last 5): 3, 0, 5, 1, 3
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between Stade Brestois 29 and Racing Club de Lens, 3 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 3 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
Stade Brestois 29 have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 2 of those games. Racing Club de Lens show 5/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 3/5.
Why
Racing Club de Lens show stronger recent form than Stade Brestois 29. Racing Club de Lens generate stronger attacking returns. Signals partially align but with notable inconsistencies. This limits the reliability of any single interpretation.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → Racing Club de Lens stronger
H2H signal → aligned with high-scoring outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Form, head-to-head, and goal trends converge on a consistent reading.
Key insight
Form and head-to-head data both support Racing Club de Lens

Moderate Signal Matches (1)

RB Leipzig vs 1. FC Union Berlin
Mixed Signal
BL1·2026-04-24·Moderate Alignment: 43/100Tomorrow
Form: RB Leipzig: 4W-0D-1L | 1. FC Union Berlin: 1W-1D-3L
H2H: 2 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 1 of 5 BTTS
Goals: RB Leipzig: 3/5 over 2.5 | 1. FC Union Berlin: 3/5 over 2.5
RB Leipzig show stronger recent form than 1. FC Union Berlin. RB Leipzig generate stronger attacking returns. 1. FC Union Berlin's defensive record is less reliable. Data shows mixed alignment across indicators. This limits the reliability of any single interpretation.
RB Leipzig's form advantage coincides with elevated goal rates
Low Signal Matches (7)Expand to view

These matches show low reliability signals. Treat with caution.

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
Weak Signal
PD·2026-04-23·Low Alignment: 37/100
Form: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: 1W-2D-2L | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: 0W-2D-3L
H2H: 3 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 2 of 5 BTTS
Goals: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: 1/5 over 2.5 | RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: 3/5 over 2.5
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid outperform RCD Espanyol de Barcelona in recent results. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona allow more goals per match on average. The available data does not produce a coherent pattern. This weakens confidence in the observed direction.
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid's recent results and head-to-head history converge on the same reading
Leicester City FC vs Millwall FC
Weak Signal
ELC·2026-04-24·Low Alignment: 36/100Tomorrow
Form: Leicester City FC: 0W-3D-2L | Millwall FC: 3W-1D-1L
H2H: 1 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals, 1 of 3 BTTS
Goals: Leicester City FC: 2/5 over 2.5 | Millwall FC: 3/5 over 2.5
Millwall FC show weaker recent form than Leicester City FC. Millwall FC generate weaker attacking returns. Leicester City FC's defensive record is less unreliable. Indicators diverge, giving low overall alignment. This means the signal carries limited interpretive weight.
Millwall FC's form advantage coincides with elevated goal rates
Real Oviedo vs Villarreal CF
Weak Signal
PD·2026-04-23·Low Alignment: 35/100
Form: Real Oviedo: 3W-1D-1L | Villarreal CF: 3W-1D-1L
H2H: 0 of last 1 matches over 2.5 goals, 0 of 1 BTTS
Goals: Real Oviedo: 2/5 over 2.5 | Villarreal CF: 3/5 over 2.5
Signals do not align consistently, resulting in low alignment. This reduces reliability of the signal.
Form, head-to-head, and goal trends are too balanced to isolate a primary driver
Sunderland AFC vs Nottingham Forest FC
Weak Signal
PL·2026-04-24·Low Alignment: 35/100Tomorrow
Form: Sunderland AFC: 3W-0D-2L | Nottingham Forest FC: 2W-3D-0L
H2H: 0 of last 1 matches over 2.5 goals, 0 of 1 BTTS
Goals: Sunderland AFC: 2/5 over 2.5 | Nottingham Forest FC: 3/5 over 2.5
Nottingham Forest FC produce more attacking output per match. The available data does not produce a coherent pattern. This weakens confidence in the observed direction.
No single signal dominates; the available data does not produce a clear interpretive direction
Levante UD vs Sevilla FC
Weak Signal
PD·2026-04-23·Low Alignment: 30/100
Form: Levante UD: 2W-2D-1L | Sevilla FC: 1W-1D-3L
H2H: 3 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 2 of 5 BTTS
Goals: Levante UD: 1/5 over 2.5 | Sevilla FC: 2/5 over 2.5
Levante UD outperform Sevilla FC in recent results. Sevilla FC allow more goals per match on average. The available data does not produce a coherent pattern. This weakens confidence in the observed direction.
Levante UD's recent results and head-to-head history converge on the same reading
SSC Napoli vs US Cremonese
Weak Signal
SA·2026-04-24·Low Alignment: 28/100Tomorrow
Form: SSC Napoli: 3W-1D-1L | US Cremonese: 1W-1D-3L
H2H: 2 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals, 1 of 3 BTTS
Goals: SSC Napoli: 1/5 over 2.5 | US Cremonese: 2/5 over 2.5
SSC Napoli show weaker recent form than US Cremonese. US Cremonese's defensive record is less unreliable. Indicators diverge, giving low overall alignment. This means the signal carries limited interpretive weight.
SSC Napoli's form advantage is the clearest signal but lacks corroboration from other sources
FC Alverca vs FC Arouca
Weak Signal
PPL·2026-04-24·Low Alignment: 25/100Tomorrow
Form: FC Alverca: 2W-1D-2L | FC Arouca: 3W-0D-2L
H2H: 0 of last 1 matches over 2.5 goals, 0 of 1 BTTS
Goals: FC Alverca: 4/5 over 2.5 | FC Arouca: 2/5 over 2.5
FC Alverca allow more goals per match on average. The low score reflects conflicting signals across data sources. This weakens confidence in the observed direction. Current goal rates are high but head-to-head meetings do not reflect this
Weak form from FC Arouca pairs with above-average goal production

How to interpret these signals

Signal fit scores (0–100) indicate alignment between form, H2H patterns, and the selected analysis type. Higher scores suggest more consistent signals.