Goalysis
2026-05-16

Football Analysis – 2026-05-16

Daily football match analysis for 2026-05-16 with signal scores and risk flags.

Introduction

Football match analysis for 2026-05-16 using Goalysis signals. Signal fit scores (0–100) indicate alignment between form, H2H patterns, and the selected analysis type. Higher scores suggest more consistent signals.

Top Matches Today (4)

SC Freiburg vs RB Leipzig
Mixed SignalSelection
BL1·2026-05-16·Moderate Alignment: 57/100
Recent form
SC Freiburg form (last 5): 2W-1D-2L. RB Leipzig form (last 5): 4W-0D-1L.
Home goals (last 5): 2, 1, 0, 2, 1 · Away goals (last 5): 2, 1, 3, 3, 1
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between SC Freiburg and RB Leipzig, 3 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 3 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
SC Freiburg have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 3 of those games. RB Leipzig show 4/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 4/5.
Why
RB Leipzig outperform SC Freiburg in recent results. RB Leipzig produce more attacking output per match. Patterns align in some areas but remain uneven. This creates only moderate alignment.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → RB Leipzig stronger
H2H signal → aligned with high-scoring outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Multiple independent sources confirm the same direction.
Key insight
RB Leipzig's recent results and head-to-head history converge on the same reading
SV Werder Bremen vs Borussia Dortmund
Mixed SignalSelection
BL1·2026-05-16·Moderate Alignment: 50/100
Recent form
SV Werder Bremen form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L. Borussia Dortmund form (last 5): 2W-0D-3L.
Home goals (last 5): 0, 1, 1, 3, 1 · Away goals (last 5): 3, 0, 4, 1, 0
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between SV Werder Bremen and Borussia Dortmund, 3 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 2 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
SV Werder Bremen have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 4 of those games. Borussia Dortmund show 3/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 2/5.
Why
SV Werder Bremen's defensive record is less reliable. Signals partially align but with notable inconsistencies. This limits the reliability of any single interpretation.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → Borussia Dortmund stronger
H2H signal → aligned with over-threshold outcomes
Goal trends → support the signal
Some indicators agree while others diverge.
Key insight
Form and head-to-head data both support Borussia Dortmund
SC Internacional vs CR Vasco da Gama
Mixed SignalSelection
BSA·2026-05-16·Moderate Alignment: 43/100
Recent form
SC Internacional form (last 5): 1W-3D-1L. CR Vasco da Gama form (last 5): 2W-2D-1L.
Home goals (last 5): 2, 2, 2, 1, 0 · Away goals (last 5): 1, 2, 0, 2, 1
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between SC Internacional and CR Vasco da Gama, 3 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 4 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
SC Internacional have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 3 of those games. CR Vasco da Gama show 2/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 3/5.
Why
Patterns align in some areas but remain uneven. This means the signal should be treated with moderate confidence.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → CR Vasco da Gama stronger
H2H signal → aligned with high-scoring outcomes
Goal trends → are inconclusive
Signals align consistently, resulting in high alignment.
Key insight
CR Vasco da Gama's form advantage is reinforced by historical matchup patterns
Fluminense FC vs São Paulo FC
Mixed SignalSelection
BSA·2026-05-16·Moderate Alignment: 43/100
Recent form
Fluminense FC form (last 5): 1W-2D-2L. São Paulo FC form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L.
Home goals (last 5): 2, 1, 0, 0, 2 · Away goals (last 5): 2, 2, 1, 1, 0
Head-to-head
In recent head-to-head meetings between Fluminense FC and São Paulo FC, 3 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 2 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.
Goal trends
Fluminense FC have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 3 of those games. São Paulo FC show 3/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 3/5.
Why
Signals show partial agreement with some inconsistencies. This limits the reliability of any single interpretation.
Signal breakdown
Form signal → Fluminense FC stronger
H2H signal → aligned with over-threshold outcomes
Goal trends → are inconclusive
Some indicators agree while others diverge.
Key insight
Form and head-to-head data both support Fluminense FC
Low Signal Matches (5)Expand to view

These matches show low reliability signals. Treat with caution.

Moreirense FC vs AVS
Weak SignalSelection
PPL·2026-05-16·Low Alignment: 36/100
Form: Moreirense FC: 2W-1D-2L | AVS: 2W-3D-0L
H2H: 1 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals, 1 of 3 BTTS
Goals: Moreirense FC: 2/5 over 2.5 | AVS: 3/5 over 2.5
AVS produce more attacking output per match. Moreirense FC allow more goals per match on average. The available data does not produce a coherent pattern. This weakens confidence in the observed direction.
Weak form from AVS pairs with above-average goal production
FC Porto vs CD Santa Clara
Weak SignalSelection
PPL·2026-05-16·Low Alignment: 33/100
Form: FC Porto: 4W-0D-1L | CD Santa Clara: 2W-2D-1L
H2H: 1 of last 4 matches over 2.5 goals, 2 of 4 BTTS
Goals: FC Porto: 3/5 over 2.5 | CD Santa Clara: 2/5 over 2.5
FC Porto outperform CD Santa Clara in recent results. FC Porto produce more attacking output per match. The available data does not produce a coherent pattern. This weakens confidence in the observed direction.
Weak form from FC Porto pairs with above-average goal production
CA Mineiro vs Mirassol FC
Weak SignalSelection
BSA·2026-05-16·Low Alignment: 33/100
Form: CA Mineiro: 1W-1D-3L | Mirassol FC: 3W-1D-1L
H2H: 1 of last 2 matches over 2.5 goals, 1 of 2 BTTS
Goals: CA Mineiro: 2/5 over 2.5 | Mirassol FC: 1/5 over 2.5
Mirassol FC hold a clear form advantage over CA Mineiro. Mirassol FC's offensive output is more unreliable. CA Mineiro concede at a higher rate. Signals do not align consistently, resulting in low alignment. This reduces reliability of the signal.
Mirassol FC stands out on form alone, but no other indicator confirms the edge
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05
Weak SignalSelection
BL1·2026-05-16·Low Alignment: 23/100
Form: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: 3W-1D-1L | 1. FSV Mainz 05: 1W-1D-3L
H2H: 1 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 2 of 5 BTTS
Goals: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: 4/5 over 2.5 | 1. FSV Mainz 05: 3/5 over 2.5
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 hold a clear form advantage over 1. FSV Mainz 05. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846's offensive output is more unreliable. 1. FSV Mainz 05 concede at a higher rate. The low score reflects conflicting signals across data sources. This reduces reliability of the signal. Current goal rates are high but head-to-head meetings do not reflect this
1. FC Heidenheim 1846's consistency and high goal frequency reinforce each other
CD Nacional vs Vitória SC
Weak SignalSelection
PPL·2026-05-16·Low Alignment: 10/100
Form: CD Nacional: 2W-0D-3L | Vitória SC: 2W-1D-2L
H2H: 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, 4 of 5 BTTS
Goals: CD Nacional: 1/5 over 2.5 | Vitória SC: 1/5 over 2.5
Neither team inconsistently reaches the goal threshold. The low score reflects conflicting signals across data sources. This reduces reliability of the signal. Recent form favors Vitória SC while head-to-head history suggests high-scoring outcomes; current goal rates are low despite high-scoring head-to-head history
Vitória SC's form advantage is not reinforced by historical matchup patterns

How to interpret these signals

Signal fit scores (0–100) indicate alignment between form, H2H patterns, and the selected analysis type. Higher scores suggest more consistent signals.