2026-10-09

Football Analysis – 2026-10-09

Daily football match analysis for 2026-10-09 with signal scores and risk flags.

Introduction

Football match analysis for 2026-10-09 using Goalysis signals. Signal fit scores (0–100) indicate alignment between form, H2H patterns, and the selected analysis type. Higher scores suggest more consistent signals.

Top Matches Today (4)

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis

BL1·2026-10-10·Moderate Alignment: 50/100Tomorrow

Recent form

1. FSV Mainz 05 form (last 5): 3W-1D-1L. Bayer 04 Leverkusen form (last 5): 2W-2D-1L.

Home goals (last 5): 4, 1, 5, 0, 2 · Away goals (last 5): 2, 2, 4, 2, 1

Head-to-head

In recent head-to-head meetings between 1. FSV Mainz 05 and Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 3 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 4 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.

Goal trends

1. FSV Mainz 05 have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 2 of those games. Bayer 04 Leverkusen show 3/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 3/5.

Why

Signals show partial agreement with some inconsistencies. This creates only moderate alignment.

Signal breakdown

Form signal → 1. FSV Mainz 05 stronger

H2H signal → aligned with high-scoring outcomes

Goal trends → support the signal

Signals partially align, with some inconsistency.

Key insight

1. FSV Mainz 05's recent results and head-to-head history converge on the same reading

Genoa CFC vs ACF Fiorentina

Mixed SignalGeneral Analysis

SA·2026-10-10·Moderate Alignment: 43/100Tomorrow

Recent form

Genoa CFC form (last 5): 0W-1D-4L. ACF Fiorentina form (last 5): 1W-1D-3L.

Home goals (last 5): 1, 1, 1, 0, 0 · Away goals (last 5): 1, 4, 1, 0, 0

Head-to-head

In recent head-to-head meetings between Genoa CFC and ACF Fiorentina, 2 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 3 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.

Goal trends

Genoa CFC have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 3 of those games. ACF Fiorentina show 4/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 3/5.

Why

ACF Fiorentina outperform Genoa CFC in recent results. ACF Fiorentina produce more attacking output per match. Signals show partial agreement with some inconsistencies. This creates only moderate alignment.

Signal breakdown

Form signal → ACF Fiorentina stronger

H2H signal → aligned with both-teams-scoring outcomes

Goal trends → support the signal

Signals partially align, with some inconsistency.

Key insight

Strong form from ACF Fiorentina pairs with above-average goal production

Arsenal FC vs Leeds United FC

Weak SignalGeneral Analysis

PL·2026-10-10·Low Alignment: 17/100Tomorrow

Recent form

Arsenal FC form (last 5): 4W-0D-1L. Leeds United FC form (last 5): 2W-3D-0L.

Home goals (last 5): 0, 2, 1, 2, 1 · Away goals (last 5): 0, 4, 1, 1, 1

Head-to-head

In recent head-to-head meetings between Arsenal FC and Leeds United FC, 4 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 2 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.

Goal trends

Arsenal FC have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 1 of those games. Leeds United FC show 1/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 3/5.

Why

Arsenal FC show weaker recent form than Leeds United FC. The low score reflects conflicting signals across data sources. This means the signal carries limited interpretive weight. Recent form favors Arsenal FC while head-to-head history suggests high-scoring outcomes; current goal rates are low despite high-scoring head-to-head history

Signal breakdown

Form signal → Arsenal FC weaker

H2H signal → aligned with over-threshold outcomes

Goal trends → are inconclusive

Signals do not align inconsistently, resulting in low alignment.

Key insight

Form and head-to-head data pull in opposite directions for Arsenal FC

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs Athletic Club

Weak SignalGeneral Analysis

PD·2026-10-10·Low Alignment: 17/100Tomorrow

Recent form

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid form (last 5): 2W-1D-2L. Athletic Club form (last 5): 2W-2D-1L.

Home goals (last 5): 1, 2, 1, 3, 2 · Away goals (last 5): 0, 1, 3, 2, 0

Head-to-head

In recent head-to-head meetings between Rayo Vallecano de Madrid and Athletic Club, 2 of the last 5 meetings finished with 3+ goals, while 3 of the last 5 meetings included goals from both teams.

Goal trends

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, and both teams scored in 5 of those games. Athletic Club show 1/5 over 2.5 matches with BTTS landing 1/5.

Why

Rayo Vallecano de Madrid's offensive output is more unreliable. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid concede at a higher rate. The low score reflects conflicting signals across data sources. This reduces reliability of the signal. Recent form favors Athletic Club while head-to-head history suggests btts outcomes

Signal breakdown

Form signal → Athletic Club weaker

H2H signal → aligned with both-teams-scoring outcomes

Goal trends → are inconclusive

No coherent pattern emerges from the available data.

Key insight

Athletic Club's consistency and high goal frequency reinforce each other

How to interpret these signals

Signal fit scores (0–100) indicate alignment between form, H2H patterns, and the selected analysis type. Higher scores suggest more consistent signals.